Publications

  • DiNezio, P., C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron, and G. Meehl, 2017: A 2 year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11624-11635, doi:10.1002/2017GL074904.
  • Yeager, S. G., G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, W. Strand, S. Bates, G. Meehl, A. Karspeck, K. Lindsay, M. C. Long, H. Teng, and N. S. Lovenduski, 2018: Predicting near-term changes in the Earth System: A large ensemble of initialized decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1867-1886, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1.
  • Simpson, I. R., C. Deser, K. A. McKinnon, and E. A. Barnes, 2018: Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures, J. Clim., 31, 8313-8338, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0168.1.
  • Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang, and S. G. Yeager, 2018: Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.
  • Kim, W. M., S. G. Yeager, and G. Danabasoglu, 2018: The Key Role of Internal Ocean Dynamics in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability During the Last Half Century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13,449-13,457, doi:10.1029/2018GL080474.
  • Gruber, N., P. Landschützer, and N. S. Lovenduski, 2019: The Variable Southern Ocean Carbon Sink, Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci., 11, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063407.
  • Lovenduski, N. S., S G. Yeager, K. Lindsay, and M. C. Long, 2019: Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake, Earth Sys. Dyn., 10, 45-57, doi:10.5194/esd-10-45-2019.

Other CESM Decadal Prediction Publications

  • Karspeck, A., S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, and H. Teng, 2014: An evaluation of experimental decadal predictions using CCSM4, Clim. Dyn., 44, 907-923, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2212-7. [PDF]
  • Yeager, S., A. Karspeck, G. Danabasoglu, J. Tribbia, and H. Teng, 2012: A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late 20th Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content, J. Climate, 25, 5173-5189, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1. [PDF]
  • Yeager, S., A. Karspeck, and G. Danabasoglu, 2015: Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,704-10,713, doi:10.1002/2015GL065364. [PDF][Supp]